MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES

Forecasting means prediction of future. Forecasting is defined as deciding what is to be done in future. Forecasts are estimates of future events and provide parameters to planning. Planning without forecasting is impossible. A manager has to make forecasts keeping in view the planning premises. There are various types of forecasts such as economical, technological, political, social etc.

Forecasting is concerned with external conditions beyond the organizations control. Even though forecasting involves risk and uncertainty, it is necessary for the survival and growth of the organization. Forecasting can be applied to predict demand, supply, price, income and any other variables. As demand is the most uncertain demand forecasting is relatively most important. An organizations estimate general forecast as well as specific forecasts such as product wise forecasts. Methods of forecasting are different new products from those for existing products. For new products, no past data is available.

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Medieval times have not contributed more to the development of management thought. In South East Asia, industry and trade were flourishing. In medieval times, a skilled craftsman taught his sons a trade and the family was known by the particular trade and skill. Modern surnames such as former, carpenter, blacksmith, goldsmith are the evidence of this development.

In the sixteenth century the ship building and maritime activities including navy were at its park. In thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, Italy had trading houses. Italy used double entry record keeping system and assembly line techniques.

Niccolo Machiavelli, a philosopher and observer of the affairs of the state, has described four important principles of management, which have relevance till today and will continue to have relevance in the future too. They are reliance on mass content, cohesiveness, leadership, will to survive. In the medieval period, management generally took the form of personal leadership.

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